Maybe there really isn't anything new under the sun.
You get that impression if you read William Strauss and Neil
Howe's book, Generations:The History of America's Future, 1584
to 2069.
Strauss and Howe have traced back through the generations of
western civilization for over four centuries.And what they found is that history may not necessarily
repeat itself, but people certainly do.
Original post date: 2/26/07
And with amazing regularity.
Strauss and Howe contend that each generation (about 20
years) follows a pattern that has repeated itself since
the 1500s.
According to them, our history can be categorized into 80
year cycles, with the four generations within the cycle
exhibiting very similar characteristics.With this in mind, it's possible to predict--not
necessarily history--but the way people will respond to
it.
Strauss and Howe's Generational Types:
Prophets are values-driven,
moralistic, focused on self, and willing to fight
(sometimes to the death) for what they believe in.Baby Boomers are an example of this type.
Nomads are ratty, tough, diverse,
adventurous, and cynical about institutions.If you know a Gen Xer, you know a nomad.
Heroes are conventional, powerful,
and institutionally driven, with a profound trust in
authority. Millennials are expected to manifest
themselves as this type.
Artists are subtle, indecisive,
emotional and compromising, often having to deal with
feelings of repression and inner conflict. The Silent
Generation (1923-1943) is an example of an artist
generation.
These generation interact with periods of history that
Strauss and Howe call turnings, each again lasting about
20 years.The
generations shape the history because of their innate
characteristics and history, in turn, shapes the
generations.
The Turning periods are described as:
The High:
an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening
individualism, signaling a new civic order and a decline
of old values.The Prophet generation disappears, Nomads enter
elderhood, Heroes enter midlife, Artists enter young
adulthood—and a new generation of Prophets is born.
The Awakening:an era of upheaval and significant change, when
conventional order comes under attack from new values.Old Nomads disappear, Heroes enter elderhood,
Artists enter midlife, Prophets enter young adulthood—and
a new generation of child Nomads is born.The 1960s are the classic example.
The Unraveling:Strengthening individualism and weakening
institutions.
Old Heroes disappear, Artists enter elderhood, Prophets
enter midlife, Nomads enter young adulthood—and a new
generation of child Heroes is born.Think the 1990s, when Gen Xers began to flex their
muscles.
The Crisis:a time of values changing, when the old civic order
gets replaced with a new one.Old Artists disappear, Prophets enter elderhood,
Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a
new generation of child Artists is born.
As these patterns continue, it's critical, from a
marketing standpoint, to change and adapt along with them.Gen Xers nomads don't respond to the same marketing
messages as their Boomer prophet parents.And Millennial heroes aren't going to go for the
same disassociated individualism messages as the Xers.For an example of what can go wrong when you don't
pay attention to the changes,
look at our take on Coke's Hilltop commercial reworks.
The authors have recently published another book, The
Fourth Turning, that digs deeper into this idea, and
looks at what's in store for the country.Patterns like those that Strauss and Howe have
identified obviously can't be relied on exclusively for
developing strategies, but they can be a useful element
and a unique perspective you may not find anywhere else.
